Lex专栏：中国经济放缓影响美国企业业绩

The connection between market prices and economic realities is partial, uncertain, changeable and irrational. A connection there is, however, and after an equity market rout such as yesterday’s, causes will be sought and fingers will doubtless point to poor earnings reports from two very large industrial companies: 3M and DuPont.

市场价格和经济现实之间的关联是局部的、不确定的、多变的和非理性的。然而，两者之间终究是存在关联的，尤其是在周二股市大跌之后，人们会寻找原因，有人无疑会指向两家大型工业企业公布的盈利报告不佳：3M和杜邦公司(DuPont)。

Sales at DuPont fell sharply and earnings per share were sliced in half. Organic sales growth was slightly positive at 3M and earnings rose but profit targets for the year were cut. It is easy to moan about the declining US industrial base. The US was not the problem at either company, though. The problem was Asia, which represents a quarter of DuPont’s sales and almost a third of 3M’s. Du Pont saw Asian volumes and prices fall 10 and 5 per cent, respectively, excluding currency effects. At 3M, falling prices outweighed volume increases.

杜邦销售额急剧下降，每股盈利减半。3M的有机销售增长勉强达到正数，利润上升，但今年的盈利目标已被下调。人们很容易哀叹美国工业基础走下坡路。但美国并非这两家公司的问题。它们的问题是亚洲，那里代表着杜邦四分之一、3M近三分之一的销售。杜邦在亚洲的销售量和价格分别下跌了10%和5%（不计汇率影响）。对3M而言，价格下跌的影响超出销量增长的影响。

Du Pont noted two sources of pain in Asia. First, and more important, was the slowdown in Chinese construction and infrastructure spending. This hit the company’s performance chemicals business, which sells heavily to producers of paint and flooring. Second came excess capacity in the solar panel industry, which DuPont supplies with materials. It was 3M’s electronics business that suffered most in Asia.

杜邦在亚洲的痛源有两个：首先也更重要的是，中国建筑及基建支出的放缓。这打击了该公司的高性能化学品业务，这块业务严重依赖对油漆和地板制造商的销售。第二是太阳能电池板行业的产能过剩，杜邦向该行业供应原料。而3M的电子业务在亚洲受打击最大。

Yet, encouragingly, if there is going to be contagion across developing markets, it does not appear to have started yet: Latin America was by far the strongest region for both companies (alas, the strong dollar diluted away the strong local results).

但令人欣慰的是，如果说发展中市场会有传染，那么传染似乎尚未开始：拉美地区是这两家公司遥遥领先的最强劲市场（可惜强势美元稀释了强劲的当地业绩）。

These figures, unsettling as they are, illustrate the power, not the risks, of global diversification. Growth and profits in one region pick up when another slows. Investors should be thinking not just about returns but also about investment. The question is not so much which companies will be hurt by the Asian slowdown but which companies will seize the opportunity to invest in the region at the bottom of the cycle.

尽管这些数据令人不安，但它们体现出全球多元化的威力，而非风险。当一个地区的增长和盈利减缓时，另一个地区出现好转。投资者不应仅考虑回报，也应关心投资。究竟哪家公司会受亚洲经济放缓的冲击，这其实关系不大，真正的问题是哪家公司能抓住机遇，在周期底部投资于相关地区。

Lex专栏是由FT评论家联合撰写的短评，对全球经济与商业进行精辟分析

The connection between market prices and economic realities is partial, uncertain, changeable and irrational. A connection there is, however, and after an equity market rout such as yesterday’s, causes will be sought and fingers will doubtless point to poor earnings reports from two very large industrial companies: 3M and DuPont.

市场价格和经济现实之间的关联是局部的、不确定的、多变的和非理性的。然而，两者之间终究是存在关联的，尤其是在周二股市大跌之后，人们会寻找原因，有人无疑会指向两家大型工业企业公布的盈利报告不佳：3M和杜邦公司(DuPont)。

Sales at DuPont fell sharply and earnings per share were sliced in half. Organic sales growth was slightly positive at 3M and earnings rose but profit targets for the year were cut. It is easy to moan about the declining US industrial base. The US was not the problem at either company, though. The problem was Asia, which represents a quarter of DuPont’s sales and almost a third of 3M’s. Du Pont saw Asian volumes and prices fall 10 and 5 per cent, respectively, excluding currency effects. At 3M, falling prices outweighed volume increases.

杜邦销售额急剧下降，每股盈利减半。3M的有机销售增长勉强达到正数，利润上升，但今年的盈利目标已被下调。人们很容易哀叹美国工业基础走下坡路。但美国并非这两家公司的问题。它们的问题是亚洲，那里代表着杜邦四分之一、3M近三分之一的销售。杜邦在亚洲的销售量和价格分别下跌了10%和5%（不计汇率影响）。对3M而言，价格下跌的影响超出销量增长的影响。

Du Pont noted two sources of pain in Asia. First, and more important, was the slowdown in Chinese construction and infrastructure spending. This hit the company’s performance chemicals business, which sells heavily to producers of paint and flooring. Second came excess capacity in the solar panel industry, which DuPont supplies with materials. It was 3M’s electronics business that suffered most in Asia.

杜邦在亚洲的痛源有两个：首先也更重要的是，中国建筑及基建支出的放缓。这打击了该公司的高性能化学品业务，这块业务严重依赖对油漆和地板制造商的销售。第二是太阳能电池板行业的产能过剩，杜邦向该行业供应原料。而3M的电子业务在亚洲受打击最大。

Yet, encouragingly, if there is going to be contagion across developing markets, it does not appear to have started yet: Latin America was by far the strongest region for both companies (alas, the strong dollar diluted away the strong local results).

但令人欣慰的是，如果说发展中市场会有传染，那么传染似乎尚未开始：拉美地区是这两家公司遥遥领先的最强劲市场（可惜强势美元稀释了强劲的当地业绩）。

These figures, unsettling as they are, illustrate the power, not the risks, of global diversification. Growth and profits in one region pick up when another slows. Investors should be thinking not just about returns but also about investment. The question is not so much which companies will be hurt by the Asian slowdown but which companies will seize the opportunity to invest in the region at the bottom of the cycle.

尽管这些数据令人不安，但它们体现出全球多元化的威力，而非风险。当一个地区的增长和盈利减缓时，另一个地区出现好转。投资者不应仅考虑回报，也应关心投资。究竟哪家公司会受亚洲经济放缓的冲击，这其实关系不大，真正的问题是哪家公司能抓住机遇，在周期底部投资于相关地区。

Lex专栏是由FT评论家联合撰写的短评，对全球经济与商业进行精辟分析